From: Taras Cranden-Guarhoth
To: GREYTALK@MITVMA.MIT.EDU
Subject: Re: [GREYTALK] Geographic and political absurdities or why the xoom Keoland writeup bites
> I'll look into the two less outrageous of the claims:
First of all, the author has stated that while based on canon, it's not completely canon.
> a) the Brotherhood has superiority on the seas. Any naval campaign is going to be a lost cause unless the brotherhood's control of the seas can be broken. Unfortunately, there is no easy way out
> on this one, as unlike demons, there is nothing to send the numerous seamonsters back into the depths. All the weirdos and pirates on the costs of the Jerlea bay aren't likely to be of
> tremendous help and are not likely to mount a big united campaign.
> Keoland does not have the option of an allout naval campaign against the Brotherhood, as it would leave their coast and ports
> open to the brotherhood forces coming from say the lordship of the isles. Similarily, if the keolandish naval forces do not gain a definate upper hand, they may get pitched between two
> brotherhood forces in the Jerlea Bay.
Flaw: This assumes that there's nothing else, like, say the Sea Barons, Nyrond, Ahlissa, not to mention that big blockade they're trying to run (it's gotta be tough to blockade such a huge expanse of open water). The moment the SB and their lackeys went ahead and tried to concentrate fully on something like overpowering Keoland navally, everyone else would notice the sudden drop in SB activity, and pounce. I think the SB would be less likely to interfere with Keoland invading a province they've pretty much lost if it'd mean they'd face increaded raids within provinces that they're not losing and are a lot closer to home.
> b) the hool marshes is a possibility, but it would have very grim results. Hool marshes are after all a big part of what has kept the Keoland out of there for so long. Just about the only way
> of moving large amounts of troops through the Hool Marches would be building special roads - most probably from treetrunks -
> over which the troops could move. Reinforcements and supplies would be a severe problem, especially should something happen to the long marsh road (which does not require all that high
> level mage). The army also has the chance of the road being destroyed at which point they are stuck in the middle of a large marsh with limited supplies...
IIRC, Keoland already went through the Hools to invade the Sea Princes once.
So it CAN be done. Plus, they could go by barge down the Javan, making the amount of marshlands that they'd need to cross significantly less.
> That all above there assumes that the locals in the Hold do not side with the Brotherhood against the new enemy - the Keoland. Keoland and the Hold have never had particularily good relations, and while they probably would at least initally cheer anybody fighting the Brotherhood, there is no
> reason to think that they like Keoland even a tiny bit more than the Brotherhood.
The locals consist of a rather large variety of peoples...Olman and Amedian savages, natives of the Sea Princes, slaves taken from around the Flanaess who were owned by the Sea Princes or Scarlet Brotherhood...I think the Keoish would face less opposition than you'd think. After all, the Olman detest the Brotherhood, as does anyone of non-Suel extraction. That alone would make them more inclined to side with the Keoish. As for the native Holders, well, considering that they all got made slaves by the SB, they'd probabily be a bit more inclined to side with the Keoish, in the hopes of getting some power back. I doubt too many would rebel against a well-trained Keoish army. But a lot may conspire behind the scenes.
> The inital cheering would soon be replaced by backstabing and sabotage.
Sounds like the makings of a campaign. And, of course, since each petty noble wants to rule a free Sea Princes, they wouldn't want to let the plans of the other nobles succeed.
> a) has a lot of dissent against any further wars due to excessive losses, inc. back at home (assassinations, etc.)
Well, there WAS a civil war, providing we're thinking of the same page.
> c) must hold in check a very troublesome new province.
And? Like the SB didn't have to hold in check a very troublesome province? That's just a fact of conquering.
> a) Yeomanry is bound to dislike the presence of Keoland on more than one of it's borders and would naturally provide help - whetever offical or not - to any dissent in Sterich.
The Yeomanry would be disinclined to do much of anything against Keoland. They do best in defense, by arming everyone. Now, if they took all these new troops to war, they'd run out of food, since they'd basically empty their country in order to use their main advantage.
> b) The Sterich refugees are bound to dislike any military action in Sterich that does not involve them, and a military action involving them will not lead to Sterich becoming part of
> Keoland.
Sterich refugees are a non-factor. A) They couldn't hold their own country in the first place. B) They are scattered about all over the place. Not all of them went to Keoland. In fact, those that had the least love for the Keoish were probabily those who went the farthest from Keoland. Those who saw Keoland as a strong, protective land that could keep them safe were probabily those who fled to Keoland.
> c) Gran Marsh, Veluna and the Ulek states are bound to strongly oppose any attempts of Keoland to annex Sterich. As Keoland cannot allow itself to be put to the situation that all it's
> neighbours have many axes to grind with it, it will not be able to undertake it. It would just not survive if its border areas and Good Hills decided to leave. It would immediately leave to
> the rest of the Keoland being split into three separate parts.
He's already stated that the three Uleks were backing Keoland. And as for Veluna, it's a non-issue. Veluna has two countries between in and Keoland. I seriously doubt they're worrying about Keoland with Ket on their border and a war with Iuz going on in their backyard (Furyondy). Which just leaves the Gran March. If the Gran March has any intelligence, it'd shut up, given that Ket's running around to the north, Veluna is distracted, and the Uleks have sided with the Keoish...leaves them pretty much alone and vulnerable...wouldn't want to give those Keoish any reason to invade, now would we? And the Good Hills...IIRC, that's the area that broke away in the civil war and had to be, erm, pacified.
> d) instead of guarding a border along a river Keoland will get new borders, inc. a very extensive border with Geoff and in the mountains, and will have to guard it against further incursions
> by giants, etc.
Which I'm sure Keoland is more than capabale of. After all, if the threats in the 591 CY era aren't so great as to stop the Sterich from doing it canonically, there wouldn't be enough to bother the Keoish from doing it in the same timeframe.
> C. Getting the Ulek States under it's banner. Yeah, right. And both Demogorgon and Grazzt reformed themselves and are now living on the plains of Elusium with other good gods...
If you disagree with his heresies, that's fine. But there's no need to discourage him from posting by mocking him. It speaks more about you than it does about him.
> Where Keoland would get all those resources that would take is another matter entirely.
Let's see...it's a big country...it was the only big country that wasn't directly involved in the Wars which troubled so much of the Flanaess a while back...odds are, it already had the resources. Gearing itself up for the next round so that it wouldn't get caught off guard like Furyondy (or worse, Tenh) were. It just decided to put the war into it's own terms, and on other people's soil, instead of it's own.
==
Taras Guarhoth, Sage of House Cranden
http://www.bestweb.net/~guarhoth/
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